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<\/a>The official 2020 Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame balloting results are in (Or are they officially out?<\/em>) and two players garnered the 75 percent supported needed for election \u2013 Derek Jeter<\/strong> (99.7 percent of the vote) and Larry Walker<\/strong> (76.6 percent). The same two players received at least 75 percent of the vote in Baseball Roundtable\u2019s (BBRT) third annual (unofficial) fan ballot.\u00a0 This post will take a look at both the BBWAA and BBRT results \u2013 the similarities and the differences.\u00a0 At the end of the post, I\u2019ll add some thoughts on voting patterns I have observed over the years.<\/p>\nA total of 131 BBRT fan readers cast ballots \u2013 and the overall results mirrored the BBWAA results.\u00a0 The only two players garnering the necessary 75 percent in the fan vote were shoo-on, first-time-on-the ballot Derek Jeter (91.5 percent) and final-year-on the ballot Larry Walker (75.4 percent).\u00a0 Finishing third in the BBWAA voting was Curt Schilling, who got more support from the writers (70 percent) than the fans (who placed Schilling fourth at 48.5 percent).<\/p>\n
Eight players finished in the top ten in both the BBWAA and BBRT balloting: Jeter, Walker, Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Omar Vizquel, Billy Wagner and Todd Helton.\u00a0 Gary Sheffield and Scott Rolen rounded out the BBWAA top ten, while Jeff Kent and Andy Pettitte completed the BBRT top ten.<\/p>\n
Side Note:\u00a0 When balloting first opened, BBRT predicted that, in the BBWAA balloting, Jeter and Walker would get in and Schilling would fall just a bit short.\u00a0 For that post, which included bios on all candidates and BBRT\u2019s vote \u2013 if, of course, I had one \u2013 click here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n So, here\u2019s the final tally, with some observations after the chart.<\/p>\n —-FAN OPINION WHO\u2019S NOT IN THAT SHOULD BE—-<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Seventy-nine survey respondents answered the question regarding which players not currently in the Hall of Fame should be there.\u00a0 Overall, this group of respondents seemed to be a forgiving group \u2013 with the candidacy of three of the top four (in terms of mentions) bringing with them come controversy.\u00a0 Tied for the most mentions at ten (12.6% of those answering the question) were Barry Bonds (with his MLB single-season and career home run record, seven league MVP Awards and PED-controversy) and Joe Jackson (with a .356 career average and the 1919 Black Sox scandal).\u00a0 Also, in the top four, at fourth place with eight mentions, was all-time base hits leader Pete Rose (banned from baseball – gambling).<\/p>\n Sitting at number-three with nine mentions was southpaw pitcher Jim Kaat (with 283 victories and 16 Gold Gloves).<\/p>\n The top ten included: three players on this year\u2019s ballot (two of whom were elected): Roger Clemens (seven mentions); Derek Jeter (seven); and Larry Walker (five).\u00a0 Also, in the top ten were Twins\u2019 three-time batting champion Tony Oliva (six); Tigers\u2019 19-season 2B Lou Whitaker (six), the 1978 AL Rookie of the Year and a four-time Gold Glover; and Dodgers\u2019 1B Gil Hodges (five), an eight-time All Star and three-time Gold Glover.<\/p>\n A few interesting tidbits from these results. We also saw one mention each for:<\/p>\n There was also one mention each for Ozzie Smith and Jack Morris, who are both already in the Hall of Fame and one for Charlie Brown (the losing-est pitcher in comic strip history).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n —–HALL OF FAME VOTING ‘CADRES” —–<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Here’s a look at some Hall of Fame voting cadres, I have noticed over time.\u00a0 This, by the way, is not a judgement on voter strategies, but rather just an observation on factors that appear to have had a current or past influence on voting patterns and vote totals.<\/p>\n The Anti-PED Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This group declines to vote for those who appear to be tied into the PED controversy. There continues to be enough of these voters to effectively block a significant number of PED-associated candidates from election.\u00a0 In recent years, this cadre has made its presence felt in both the BBWAA and BBRT balloting.\u00a0 There does seem to be a slowly diminishing effect among BBWAA voters, but the impact on BBRT fan ballot total has been relatively stable.<\/p>\n The Small Hall Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This cadre has focused on demanding the highest standards for election to the Hall of Fame \u2013 and has voted vote for very few (sometimes even zero) candidates.\u00a0 This, by the way, is not a new approach. Back in 1988, for example, nine blank ballots were cast in the BBWAA voting. A Los Angeles Times<\/em> article quoted New York Daily News<\/em> reporter Phil Pepe (who sent in one of the nine blank ballots) as saying the Hall of Fame was \u201ctoo crowded,\u201d adding\u00a0 \u201cI think to go in alongside Ruth, DiMaggio, Williams, Aaron, Cy Young, you have to be the cream of the cream. The more you erode the standards, the more the standards will be eroded.\u201d\u00a0 This cadre has a notable impact on elections, since each ballot a player is not named on requires three ballots to counter that omission.<\/p>\n I should note that, in recent years, this particular voting strategy has been on the decline.\u00a0 In the past seven elections a total of 26 players have been elected in the traditional BBWAA balloting. That\u2019s two more than were elected in the previous 14 years (2000-2013).<\/p>\n The Unanimously Adverse Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This cadre has been made up of voters who are opposed to (or uniquely demanding) of a unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. The more recent logic appears to have been \u201cIf Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Willie Mays Cy Young or (insert a legendary player of your choice) was not a unanimous selection, why should player \u201cX\u201d be?\u201d<\/em>\u00a0 Mariano Rivera\u2019s unanimous selection and Jeter\u2019s close call seem to indicate this cadre\u2019s days are behind us.\u00a0 Still, even when this is only a cadre of one, it is effective. I won\u2019t speculate on this year’s lone ballot omitting first-timer Derek Jeter, but the fact that we\u2019ve had only one unanimous selection in HOF voting history is a pretty good indicator that this cadre has impacted voting over time.<\/p>\n The Ballot-Hierarchy Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Over the years, members of this cadre have drawn a line between first-ballot and subsequent-ballot votes.<\/p>\n The Ballot Hierarchy was a \u201cthing\u201d for a long time.\u00a0 In a 2013 column, ESPN\u2019s Howard Bryant wrote: \u201cI believe in the hierarchy of the ballot, that the first ballot is different than the second or the tenth, that there is a special prestige to a player being voted in the first time he is eligible.\u201d\u00a0 The question for BBRT is, \u201cDo voters just withhold that first-, second- or other-ballot vote, or does it go to another candidate who meets the hierarchy test?”<\/p>\n I should add that this can be a two-edged sword.\u00a0 While the ballot-hierarchy test may delay some players’ elections, it can also work in a player’s favor in the final years on the ballot \u2013 giving a particular boost in a player\u2019s last year of eligibility. \u00a0\u00a0For example, Larry Walker\u2019s final five years on the ballot saw his vote percentages go (in order) \u2013 15.5, 21.9, 34.1, 54.5 and 76.6.\u00a0 His stats didn\u2019t change over that time, but the clock on eligibility was ticking downward.<\/p>\n Side Note; There also appears to be a group of voters who combine “Ballot-Hierarchy” with “Anti-PED,” withholding votes from PED suspects until later years of eligibility.\u00a0 We’ll soon see how that plays out.<\/p>\n The Strategist Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Somewhat related to the “Ballot Hierarchy” group \u2013 at least in impact \u2013 this group reasons that certain players are sure bets to get the required 75 percent and chooses not to add to the sure-thing margin, instead casting that vote for a player they find deserving further down the ballot.\u00a0 This approach may actually improve the chances of additional candidates. A subset of this group is those who note that certain players (in, for example, the 40 percent range), while NOT likely to reach 75 percent in a given year, ARE pretty much assured of adequate support to stay on the ballot. This subset withholds votes from those candidates and votes to protects those they would like to see on the ballot (but who are less “safe”).<\/p>\n The From-the-Heart Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This group (which seemed to show up in the BBRT unofficial fan ballot more than in the BBWAA voting) casts votes for a specific player (or players) further \u201cdown the board\u201d either as a \u201cfan\u201d statement or to ensure that player does not fall off the ballot (get less than five percent).<\/p>\n The Ten-Best Cadre<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n This group simply votes for whom they felt are the ten best players; regardless of the factors influencing any of the cadres already noted.\u00a0 (Well, in some cases it is the eight or nine candidates they feel are deserving.)<\/p>\n So, there’s BBRT’s look at the 2020 HOF election, as well as some observations of current and past voting strategies.<\/p>\n Primary Resources:\u00a0<\/strong><\/em> Baseball-Reference.com; Baseball-Almanac.com; Blank Hall of Fame ballot serves as protest<\/em> … January 14, 1988; Associated Press; Drawing a blank on a HOF ballot<\/em> … January 9, 2013; Howard Bryant, ESPN Senior Writer; espn.com; My crowded Hall of Fame ballot, with no regard for the ‘sacred place’<\/em> … January 20, 2018; Ken Davidoff; New York Post (nypost.com); \u00a0Hall of Fame Roundtable: Should voters ‘game” the ballot to get more players in? <\/em>… January 22, 2018; Matt Snyder; cbssports.com; It’s a Hall voter’s prerogative to change mind<\/em> … January 25, 2018; Patrick Reusse; StarTribune.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n\n
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<\/a>The BBRT HOF Ballot Prize Pack went to Shawn H. of Washington \u2013 who will receive a 1990 Topps complete set; a Greg Maddux Donruss 1987 rookie card; a Joe Mauer bobblehead, commemorating his 2006 batting title; and a limited edition ball from the Tampa Bay \u201cDevil Rays\u201d inaugural game.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a>Baseball Roundtable is on the Feedspot list of the Top 100 Baseball Blogs.\u00a0 To see the full list, click\u00a0here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI tweet baseball @DavidBBRT<\/h3>\n