Missing and Musing About Complete Games

Yesterday (July 3, 2021), Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough (in the past known for his role as a long-inning reliever following the Ray’s short-stint “opener’) tossed his first MLB complete game. It was the Rays’ first-complete game since May 14, 2016 – a span of 731 games.  In the 9-2 win, Yarbrough gave up two runs on six hits, with no walks and six strikeouts.  He threw 113 pitches.  That set Baseball Roundtable to thinking it might be an appropriate time to update a past post on the MLB unicorn known as the complete game.

This season, through June 3, there have been 1,672 MLB starts – of which 26 have resulted in a complete-game by the starting pitcher.  Those 26 complete games represent just 1.6 percent of the total starts.  In addition nine (34.6 percent) of those complete games have come in MLB’s new seven-inning doubleheader contests. Factor those out and just 1.0 percent of 2021 starts have resulted in traditional complete game performance.  Compare that to 1980, when the future topped 20 percent of even 1990 when it was still slightly over ten percent.  (More on those stats coming in this post.

Jim Devlin, A Complete-Game Machine

In 1877, Jim Devlin of the National League’s Louisville Grays started and completed all 61 of the team’s games– the only pitcher ever to pitch all of a team’s innings in a season.  This, by the way, came one season after he started all but the final game of the Grays’ season (a record 68 consecutive games pitched in) and finished 66 of them.  Devin logged a total of 1,181 innings. Side Note: Sadly, Devlin’s career was cut short when he was banned after the 1877 season, as the result of a game-fixing scandal. 

So, I dug a little deeper and found that (even with the seven inning doubleheader games) the Jays, Braves, Twins and Red Sox have no complete games in 2020-21). Further, in the 2019 season (the last full MLB season on the books), MLB saw a total of just 45 complete games – one every 108 starts.  And, in 2019, seven teams recorded zero complete games and, overall, MLB teams used an average of 4.41 pitchers (per team) per game.  As usual with Baseball Roundtable, “one thing led to another.”   So, here’s a look at what I discovered as I was drawn deeper into the topic.

I would note here that this is an observation not an opinion piece.  The game has changed – more strikeouts, more home runs, more defensive shifts, fewer complete games, fewer bunts – and I have adjusted my expectations.  (Although I would still like to see the occasional mound workhorse reach double digits in complete games.)

The age of the 20-complete-game season (maybe even ten) and the 300-innings-pitched (or even, perhaps, 250 innings) are over.  And, it’s not all the pitchers’ fault. (I’ll get into some of the reasons later, but let’s look at some numbers first.)

First, how about the steady decline in complete games?  Back in 1900. more than 80 percent of starts resulted in complete games.  As the chart below shows, that number declined fairly steadily – and was at less than 1 percent in 2019 (the last full season), with just 45 complete games in 4,858 starts.  As you saw in the first chart, even with the seven-inning doubleheader games, MLB has stayed around the 1 percent mark in complete games in 2020-21.

Some observations from my examination of this trend. It wasn’t until 1955 that we saw a league leader in complete games with less than 20 finished starts (Whitey Ford, Yankees, 18 CGs).  And, 1980 was the first year that a league leader notched less than 14 complete games.  The last time, we saw 20 complete games in a season?  Fernando Valenzuela in 1986.  James Shields, in 2011, became the first pitcher to reach double-digits (11) in complete games in a dozen years – and earned a reputation as an iron man. In 2019, Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito shared the MLB complete-game lead – with three each.

Jack Taylor and Will White – Finishing What They Started.

Between 1901 and 1906 (Cubs and Cardinals),  Jack Taylor threw a record 187 consecutive complete games (with 15 relief appearances interspersed).  Then there’s Will White (Cincinnati), who, in 1879, completed a single-season record 75 complete games (in 75 starts).  White went 43-31 that year, with a 1.99 ERA and 680 innings pitched.  For his career, White completed 394 of 401 starts. 

How different is today’s game?  In 2019, the MLB co-leaders in complete games (Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito) tossed a total of six complete games combined. in 1968, Don Drysdale set a record by tossing six consecutive complete-game shutouts.  Then there’s Walter Johnson, who threw a career record 110 complete-game shutouts and, in September of 1908, threw three complete-game shutouts in four days – and might have done it in three days, except for baseball’s sabbath laws.

The record for career complete games belongs to Cy Young at 749.  Young completed 91.9 percent of his starts. The active leader in career games is Justin Verlander with 26 in 454 starts over 16 seasons.  (Verlander may not pitch in 2021, as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.) Among pitchers pitching this season, Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright share the lead in career complete games at 25.  The combined 76 complete games twirled by Verlander, Kershaw and Wainwright would place them 548th on the all-time list.  Babe Ruth, by the way, tossed 107 complete games in 147 career starts. 

As complete games have dropped, the numbers of pitchers used in each game have risen.  In the 1950’s, when I started watching major league baseball, you were likely to see four pitchers per game (the average in 1950 was 2.01 pitchers per team/per game).  In 2019, you were more likely to see between eight and nine players take the mound in a game.  MLB attempted to address that trend (and its impact on game time) with a new rule in 2020 – requiring each pitcher to either face at least three hitters or complete the half-inning.  The jury’s still out on the impact of this rule change.  Thus far, in 2021, team are actually using 4.27 pitchers per team/per game – up from 2019’s 4.41.

So, why the dramatic decline in complete games?

Five-man Rotations … and. more recently “openers” and “bullpen games.”

In baseball’s early days, team got by with two or three primary starters. Even in the 1960’s a four-man rotation was pretty common. As we moved into the 1970s, teams started moving to five-man pitching rotations.  Fewer starts, fewer opportunities for wins, complete games, innings pitched.   (Notably, swifter travel  – trains not planes – has contributed somewhat to this.  In the days of train travel, more travel time meant more days between series and fewer pitchers were needed. )

In 1968, when Bob Gibson went 22-9, 1.12 for the Cardinals, he tossed 28 complete games (13 shutouts) in 34 starts. 

 More recently, in a strategy first led by the Rays, teams are going to the use of relief pitchers as “openers,” sometimes followed by a primary pitcher and late-inning relievers – or even entire “bullpen” games, with a series of reliever each taking on one or two innings.

The “Quality” Start

In today’s game, six innings and three or fewer runs is a quality start.   Starting pitchers, as recently as the 1980’s, would have considered six innings pitched a day off.  The quality start has helped change the way we (as well as managers and pitchers) look at starting pitchers’ performances. Pitchers simply are no longer  expected to finish what they start.

In 2021, through June 3, starting pitchers are averaging 5.1 innings per start.

The Advent of the Save

Years ago, relief pitchers were mostly starters past their prime brought in to “mop up.”   In fact, the “save” was not even established as a statistic until 1969 (saves were awarded retroactively for seasons prior to 1969).  Today, relievers are more valued and respected then ever – which leads us to the next point – the rise of relief specialists.

The Rise of Relief Specialists

Today, not only does the manager look to the closer (primarily for the ninth inning), the bullpen also features key “set up” men, earmarked for the seventh or eighth inning.  And, not only do most teams have their seventh- and eighth-inning specialists, we also see “arms” in the bullpen ready for long- and middle-relief.  Recently, until this  year’s rule change,(requiring a pitcher to faced at least three batters or finish an inning), even one-batter (lefty or righty), specialists were stalwarts in MLB bullpens. No wonder managers are so quick with the hook.  They’ve got to keep that multi-million dollar bullpen happy.

The Dreaded Pitch Count

And, of course, there is the “pitch count,” considering the financial investment teams have in pitchers, the thinness of pitching staffs (we do, after all, now have thirty teams), pitchers are treated with great care, often held to pitch counts in the neighborhood of 100 – no matter how well they are throwing.  Pitchers simply are throwing less these days.

Phil Humber threw only one complete game in his eight-season MLB career – and it was a perfect game.  Why is it included in this pitch count section? He needed just 95 pitches to complete the outing. 

Strikeouts

The growing emphasis on strikeouts has also contributed to the  decline in complete games (particularly when combined with pitch counts).  The fact is, it most often takes more pitches to rack up strikeouts than to pitch to weak contact.  (In most cases, it also requires an increased focus on velocity, also tougher on the arm.) Consider the record of Warren Spahn, who led the National League in complete games an MLB-record nine times, won 20 or more games in 13 seasons and led the league in strikeouts four times – yet averaged just 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings, never struck out 200 batters nor six batters per nine innings in a season.  In 2019, MLB pitchers averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine frames – and the MLB leader in wins (Justin Verlander) fanned 300 batters in 223 innings (12.1 per nine innings), but threw only two complete games.

In 2021, through June 3, we are seeing 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings – up from 8.9 in 2019 (MLB’s last full season). In 2020, the average was 9.1. 

Sidebar – Innings Pitched Leaders

From 1950-59, Robin Roberts AVERAGED 301 innings pitched (and 23.7 complete games) per season.  And, if you pick any decade from 1900 through 1979, the average innings pitched for the league leaders was over or very near 300.  However, innings pitched have dropped significantly since Steve Carlton became the most recent pitcher to hurl 300 innings in (1980).  For the last decade, the average for league leaders has been shy of 250.   

Here’s the chart of average innings pitched by league leaders (by decade) with major strike-shortened seasons deleted:

Decade                 Average Innings Pitched by League Leaders

1909-09                                                350

1910-19                                                348

1920-29                                                318

1930-39                                                304

1940-49                                                305

1950-59                                                294

1960-69                                                303

1970-79                                                327

1980-89                                                279

1990-99                                                261

2000-09                                                244

2010-19                                                 231

A final tidbit on complete games. Put this one in the “We won’t see that again” column. On August 29, 1926, Cleveland Indians’ right-hander Emil “Dutch” Levsen became the last pitcher to record two complete-game victories in a doubleheader – winning by scores of 6-1 and 5-1, giving up just four hits in each contest and not fanning a single batter. For more on pitchers with two complete-game victories in a single day, click here. 

So, there are BBRT’s musings about complete games.  I do kind of miss them, but that the way today’s game is played.

Primary Resources:  Baseball-Reference.com; MLB.com; Baseball-Almanac.com.

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