Baseball Roundtable invites, encourages and enjoys comments and guest post from readers. Debate and discussion are, after all, part of what makes baseball our national pastime. What follows is a guest post from Evan Sutker – a hardball fan and BBRT reader who says he grew up on Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine (as well as the Jones boys, Chipper and Andruw) and the Braves of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Sutker has a passion for both baseball and Lacrosse and spent his evenings (when he didn’t have Lacrosse practice) watching the Braves. If you are interested in a look at baseball attendance trends, read on. Also, if you have an interest in honest and reliable Lacrossw equipment and gear reviews, you should visit Evan’s blog at lacrossescoop.com
MLB Popularity Changes- Is the Sport Really Declining?
Guest Post by Evan Sutker
Has baseball’s popularity really been trending down for years, or even decades? Is the sport just too slow and outdated to compete with the NBA and NFL? Let’s take a look at the actual numbers and go from there.
MLB Attendance Numbers
Using Baseball Reference’s attendance numbers, we see that attendance per game is down for the third consecutive year, averaging 28,738 per game played so far in 2018 (as of July 31st). This is down 5.3 percent from 30,349 in 2015. Attendance per game peaked in 2007 at 32,696, nearly 14 percent higher than the average attendance per game this season. NFL attendance has dropped from 17.51 million to 17.25 million from 2015 to 2017, a drop of 1.5 percent.
The stats show a slight, but noteworthy, drop in baseball attendance. 2017 and 2018 were the first years under 30,000 average per game since 2003. Additionally, there have been no player strikes or recessions that would help explain any decrease. See the full attendance averages here.
It does appear that the product on the field matters. Check out the chart above – a look at the top five teams in 2018 attendance gains versus the five biggest losers in attendance per game this year (compared to one year ago). Houston, coming off their World Series win, shows the biggest gain at nearly 6,000 more fans per game. New York (Yankees), on track to win ten more games than last year, and Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Seattle (all significantly improved over one year ago) are all showing notable attendance jumps. Conversely, Baltimore and Kansas City are on track for historically bad seasons – and have the third- and fifth-largest attendance declines. Detroit, Toronto and Miami – teams that have all disappointed and have been on track to lose 90 or more games (as of July 31) – are also among the top five teams in terms of average attendance decline.
TV Ratings
Attendance numbers are down, so what about television ratings? Well, there is good news and bad news for MLB. The good news is that baseball games lead ratings in 25 of 29 cable TV markets that MLB plays in. 162 baseball games is a long season and advertisers and networks cannot ignore that type of day-in and day-out dominance. MLB may have peaked in America a few years or even decades ago, but it is not going anywhere anytime soon. For a look at the prime-time television ratings for MLB (as reported by Forbes), click here.
However, there is some bad news. TV ratings are down significantly and the downward trend shows little sign of abating. Getting information to compare local ratings for regular season games is very difficult, but looking at World Series ratings year-over-year does not paint a pretty picture. (See the World Series ratings here.) World Series ratings peaked in the late 80’s and early 90’s, routinely averaging over 30 million viewers per game. The 2016 World Series (featuring the big market Chicago Cubs breaking a near century-long streak) is the only World Series since 2004 to break 20 million viewers, despite the US population consistently rising.
Super Bowl viewership has risen consistently year-over-year and decade-over-decade (but you must consider that the Super Bowl is a single Sunday, as opposed to a potential seven-game World Series) viewing commitment. NBA Finals viewership is up and down depending on whether Michael Jordan is playing! See Super Bowl viewership ratings here; NBA Finals ratings here.
There are no easy fixes, but I believe pace of play is a large factor. We are seeing approximately two more pitchers per game than 20 years ago – which adds around 10-15 minutes of game time by itself. It seems like there are several games each night that push toward four hours, despite not going into extra innings. A fan survey earlier this season on BBRT showed that 38 percent of respondents do not care about game length, while 46 percent of respondents felt like the ideal game would be 2.5 hours or less. Keep in mind that Baseball Roundtable readers likely are more committed to the game than the average fan; so we can expect a greater number percentage of fans overall would show a notable preference for games of under three hours.
MLB has instituted rule changes in recent years to help speed things up including shortening the time between innings, limiting mound visits for managers and the new Intentional Walk rule. There has also been talk of changes like requiring batters to keep one foot in the batter’s box during an at bat or requiring relief pitchers to record at least one out. Additionally, the minor leagues have instituted a new rule that puts a runner on second base for both teams at the start of each frame in all extra innings. That seems like too much for me, but it would certainly help keep games from hitting the four-hour mark. I think a pitch clock is inevitable and would help the game of baseball market itself to casual, younger fans. What do you think – not just about a pitch clock, but other potential methods to accelerate the pace of the game? If you enjoyed the post, please check out my Lacrosse site – here.
BBRT says “Thanks Evan, for sharing with Baseball Roundtable’s readers.”
