As the MLB season prepares to truly get underway, here are the Roundtable’s predictions for 2025. So, I can be on record if I do pretty well (or can ignore them if I don’t). A cautionary word, while these predictions are statical-driven, some bias comes into the picture. Being a Minnesotan, I tend to be overly optimistic about my Twins; I’m probably a touch harder on the Yankee (old-school bias); and I lean toward pitching over offense (I’m the kind of fan who prefers a 3-2 game to a 13-12 contest or even a 7-6 score.). Side note: I am not the fan of overseas “openers” during Spring Training, I consider Opening Day to be when we have a full (or nearly full) slate of games.
AL EAST
Orioles 90-72
Blue Jays 88-74
Yankees 85-77
Red Sox 83-79
Rays 79-83
To be honest, when I started this part of this post, I had the Yankees and Orioles fighting it out (once again) for the Division title – with Yankee pitching depth giving them a slight edge. Then, Luis Gil, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and potentially Clarke Schmidt went down with injury concerns. Now, it looks like the Division title will go to the Orioles, but the Blue Jays and Red Sox will be in the fight.
The Orioles boast lots of talented youngsters led by 23-year-old MVP candidate SS Gunnar Henderson (.281-37-92, with 21 steals a year ago). Henderson (intercostal strain) may miss some time early. There is also the potential power of newcomer Tyler O’Neill, who hit 31 homers in 113 games in 2024. (Not to mention – Oh, I guess I will – the likes of C Andy Rutschman (19HR/79RBI), 3B Jordan Westburg(18HR/63RBI) and CF Cedric Mullins (18HR/54RBI/32SB). The O’s will miss the mound work of Corbin Burnes (lost to free agency), last year’s “ace” and a 15-game winner, as well as Grayson Rodriguez, a 13-game winner a year ago, who will start the season on the IL. Still, there appears to be enough pitching to claim the title, with Zach Elfin (10-9, 3.59); newcomer, 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano (136-75, 2.45 in 12 seasons in Japan); Charlie Morton; highly touted Carl Povich; and Dean Kremer in the rotation. One reason for concern is the status of elite closer Felix Bautista (Tommy John surgery), who missed the 2024 season after 33 saves and a 1.48 ERA in 2023. Bautista’s status may determine the Orioles’ ability to lead the Division.
The Blue Jays added the power bat of RF Anthony Santander (44 homer/102 RBI for the Orioles in 2024) to a lineup that includes 1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.323-30-103) and SS Bo Bichette (whom I expect to rebound from an off year in 2024). They also signed Max Scherzer, who has looked sharp this spring (although he did experience some thumb soreness). Scherzer joins a rotation that includes 16-game winner Jose Berrios and 14-game winner Kevin Gausman. Closing duties appear to belong to Jeff Hoffman (10 saves a yar ago), although Chad Green should see plenty of late-inning action.
Even with their injury issues, the Yankees still have plenty of talent. Aaron Judge (.322-58-104) is a game changer, 2B Jazz Chisholm, Jr. (.256-24-73, 40 steals) brings power and speed and prospect Jasson Dominguez appears ready to take over LF. Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96) will lead the rotation and newcomer Max Fried (11-10, 3.25 for the Braves) will help compensate for some of the pitching losses. Newcomers CF Cody Bellinger (.266-18-78) and 1B Paul Goldschmidt, (.245-22-65), are veteran hitters, but may not be enough to overcome the loss of Juan Soto (free agent) and Giancarlo Stanton (injury). Add the loss of Gerrit Cole, expected long absence of Luis Gil and recent health concerns regarding Clarke Schmidt and it seems like too much to overcome.
The Red Sox added southpaw Gary Crochet, the “ace” they needed at the top of the rotation and Alex Bregman (.260-26-75 for the Astros in 2024) to add power (to an already solid lineup) and infield defense. Tanner Houck (9-10, 3.12) should slot into the number-two rotation spot and the Red Sox are hoping for a rebound from newcomer Walker Buehler. Health concerns regarding starters Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito and Kutter Crawford present an early season challenge (which is why I put them behind the Yankees.) The bullpen is headed by veterans Liam Hendriks (coming off health concerns, including 2023 Tommy John surgery, but with 37 saves for the White Sox in 2022) and Aroldis Chapman (3.79 in 68 games for the Pirates). There is ample offense with Bregman, 1B Triston Casas (12 homers in 63 games and 21 homers 2023), LF Jarren Duran (21 homers/34 steals) and DH Rafael Devers (.272-28-83).
Finally, the Rays will continue get more out of their squad then most observers expect, but I don’t see them moving up. Key contributors should include 1B Yandy Diaz (.281-14-65); 2B Brandon Lowe (21HR/58RBI); 21-year-old prospect 3B Junior Caminero. The Rays could use a rebound from LF Christopher Morel (.196-21-60 in 152 games for the Cubs and Rays a year ago, but .247-26-70 in 107 games for the Cubs in 2023). If healthy, the Rays’ rotation will be led by Shane McLanahan (returning from Tommy John surgery after an 11-2, 3.29 season in 2023). In the mix are: Zach Littell, Taj Bradley, Shane Baz (2022 Tommy John Surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (recovering from elbow surgery, but who had a 2.83 ERA in 28 2/3 innings last year). There is potential in the rotation, but health and workload concerns hover over the staff. Closing duties look to go to Pete Fairbanks (23 saves in 2024) and/or Edwin Uceta (1.53 ERA in 30 appearances). Ultimately, only the White Sox scored fewer runs than the Rays last season and things don’t look a lot different going into 2025. Still, the Rays tend to surprise and if the pitching holds up could move as high as third, but I place them here.
AL CENTRAL
Twins 87-75
Royals 85-77
Tigers 83-79
Guardians 80-82
White Sox 60-102
Actually, this is kind of ABCD (Anybody But Chicago Division). I’m going to be a “homer” (I’m from the Twin Cities) and go with the Twins. I’m betting (perhaps too optimistically, especially given Royce Lewis’ recent hamstring issues) on improved health from SS Carlos Correa, 3B Lewis and CF Byron Buxton. (Last season those three hit 50 home runs and drove in 157 runs – 27% of the Twins’ homers and 22% of the team’s RBI – despite missing a combined 214 games.) Critical to the offense will be super-utility man Willi Castro (.247-12-69, with 14 steals), who plays all over the field and gives the Twins the flexibility to rest players as needed (to keep the likes of Correa, Lewis and Buxton on the field). Last season, Castro led the Twins in games played at 158. The Twins have a solid rotation led by Pablo Lopez (15 wins in an off year); Joe Ryan (7-7. 3.50); and Bailey Ober (12-9, 3.98). They have arguably the best bullpen in the Division (perhaps in the AL), with flamethrower Jhoan Duran (23 saves and 10.9 whiffs per nine innings a year ago); Griffin Jax (2.03 ERA in 72 appearances); Cole Sands; Brock Stewart and Danny Coulombe.
If the Twins falter, I look for the Royals to step up. They’ve got a strong and improving lineup, led by MVP candidate Bobby Witt, Jr. (.333-32-109, 31 steals). The Royals added 2B/DH Jonathan India (.248-15-58, 13 steals) to lead off and can also expect offense from underrated 1B Vinnie Pasquantino (87 RBI) and) veteran C Salvador Perez (.271-27-104). They have a solid rotation (second-lowest starters’ ERA in MLB last season) that leads off with Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14), Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00) and Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35). They also strengthened the bullpen with the addition of Carlos Estevez (26 saves for the Angels and Phillies a year ago). Geez, my pick of the Twins isn’t look as bright, but I’ll stick with it.
The Tigers are not far behind, with reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39) heading a strong rotation that includes, Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17), Reese Olson, Casey Mize and top prospect Jackson Jobe. Jason Foley (28 saves, 3.15, 69 appearances) will lead a bullpen that includes Tyler Holton (2.19 in 66 appearances), Beau Brieske (3.59 in 46 appearances) and Will Vest (2.82 in 69 appearances). The offense, led by emerging star LF Riley Greene (.262-24-74), RF Kerry Carpenter (.284-18-57); and Parker Meadows (who came on strong in the second half of 2024, but may start the season on the IL) may fall a little short of the Royals and Twins. However, I’m actually picking Detroit as low as third (in this tight division) because I’m not sure their successful brand of “pitching “chaos” will turn the trick again. (Last season, the Tigers got the fewest innings out of their starting pitchers of any MLB team, relief appearances made up 48% of their Tigers’ total innings, starters averaged an MLB-low 4.65 innings per outing and relievers recorded 46 of the teams 86 victories.) If “chaos” works again the Tigers could stay atop the Division, but I don’t see it.
The Guardians are a bit longer shot than the Twins, Royals and Tigers to make the post-season – it all depends on pitching. I think the rotation falls a little short of the teams I’m picking ahead of the Guardians: Tanner Bibee (12-8, 3.47) and Luis Ortiz (7-6, 3.32) are likely to lead the way, with Gavin Williams, Ben Lively and Triston McKenzie (looking to bounce back from a 3-5, 5.11 2024) filling out the five spots. The Guardians boast a premier bullpen: Emmanuel Clase (47 saves, 0.61 ERA); Hunter Gaddis (1.57 ERA); Tim Herrin (1.92); Cade Smith (1.91). I worry a bit that the pen may have been overworked in 2024. (Those four top arms each made at least 74 appearances a year ago.) 3B Jose Ramirez (.279-39-118, 41 steals) remains an MVP candidate on offense and LF Steven Kwan is a solid in the leadoff spot (.292-14-44, 12 steals); but they need some help. One likely source is newcomer 1B Carlos Santana (23 homers with the Twins last year). Still, ff the bullpen holds up and if Shane Bieber returns strong (probably in June) after Tommy John surgery, the Guardians could get in the hunt.
The White Sox, well after 121 losses a year ago, they are not in the mix. Consider, with Garret Crochet gone, the ChiSox are expected to name rookie Sean Burke – with just 19 MLB innings, but a 1.42 ERA on his resume – as the Opening Day starter. (Burke was 2-6, 4.62 at Triple-A a year ago). Andrew Benintendi, who led the team with 20 homers in 2024 – will miss Opening Day (fractured hand); and the likely closer will be Justin Anderson (1-2, 4.39 in 56 outings a year ago).
AL WEST
Astros 90-72
Mariners 88-74
Rangers 86-76
Angels 73-89
A’s 70-92
The Astros have a strong rotation, led by Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91), Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49) and Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80) – and Josh Hader (34 saves) and Bryan Abreu should shorten the game. The offense features dynamic 2B (now LF). Jose Altuve (.295-20-65), with 22 steals), SS Jeremy Pena (.286-15-70, with 20 steals), C Yainer Diaz (.299-18-84) and Uber DH Yordan Alvarez (.308-35-86). This is a well-balanced team that knows how to win.
The Mariners may have the deepest rotation in the Division: Logan Gilbert (9-12, 3.23), Bryce Miller (12-8, 2.94), Bryan Woo (9-3, 2.89) and Luis Castillo (11-12, 3.64) – although they will miss George Kirby (right shoulder) early. The bullpen is solid, led by closer Andres Munoz (2.12 ERA/22 saves). The offense is built around MVP candidate Julio Rodriguez (.273-20- 68, with 24 steals in an off year – he was a 30/30 player in 2023) and catcher Cal Raleigh (.220-34-100). It falls off from there. Rodriguez was the only Mariner with 100+ games and an average above .243 and his 68 RBI were second (to Raleigh’s 100) on the Mariners. There doesn’t seem to be enough offense to support that solid pitching. Keep an eye on RF Victor Robles. Released by the Nationals in June (after hitting .120 in just 14 games), he raked at a .328 pace in 77 games after signing with the Mariners. He’s just 27 and could have some solid upside – particularly on the basepaths (30 steals in 31 attempts with Seattle last season.)
The Rangers (a popular pick to win the division) have a deep offense led SS Corey Seager (30 HR/74RBI), 2B Marcus Semien (23HR/74 RBI), newcomer 1B Jake Burger (29HR/76 RBI), LF Wyatt Langford (16HR/74 RBI), RF Adolis Garcia (25HR/85 RBI) and newcomer DH Joc Pederson (23HR/64RBI). You get the idea. The loss of Jon Gray (wrist) exposed a bit of a thin rotation for the Rangers – they can still count on Nathan Eovaldi (12-8, 3.80), but they really need comeback seasons from Jacob DeGrom (just 47 starts in the last five seasons) and Tyler Mahle (eight starts in the last two seasons). I also have some concerns regarding the bullpen after the departure (free agency) of closer Kirby Yates (33 saves a year ago) and key setup men David Robertson and Jose LeClerc. Chris Martin (3.45, with two saves in 45 appearances for Boston) looks to be the closer, with Robert Garcia and Mike Church getting plenty of late-inning work. Ultimately, the Ranger have the AL West’s powerful lineup, but I’m just not sure there is enough pitching to enable that potent offense to bash up in the standings.
The Angels added Yusei Kikuchi (9-10. 4.05 for the Blue Jays and Astros) to lead the rotation that includes Tyler Anderson, Jose Soriano and Kyle Hendriks. Kikuchi seemed to find himself after a trade to the Astros – going 5-1, 2.70 in 10 August/September starts. Anderson was 10-15, 3.81 for the Angels. Soriano converted form a reliever to a starter was and was 6-7, 3.42 and seems to have some potential. Hendriks adds a veteran presence (11 seasons with the Cubs), but is coming off difficult year (4-12, 5.92). On offense there are health concerns with Mike Trout (averaging 64 games played over the past five seasons) and Anthony Rendon (52 games per season over the last five). If they can each put in a full season, the Angels’ prospects improve. Newcomer DH Jorge Soler (.251-21-64) should help the offense – as would further development of young, high potential players SS Zach Neto (starting the season on the IL), C Logan O’Hoppe and 1B Nolan Schanuel. Still, this is a team that scored the third-fewest runs in MLB a year ago and allowed the fourth most, they still have a way to go.
The A’s improved from 50 wins in 2023 to 69 in 2024, but that still left them 24 games under .500. They have some exciting young talent in DH Brent Rooker (.293-39-112 a year ago), C Shea Langeliers (29 HR/80RBI), RF Lawrence Butler and lights-out closer Mason Miller (28 saves, 2.49 ERA, 104 K in 65 innings), but I don’t see them moving too far (other than to Sacramento, of course – and who knows what that will mean in terms of the intangibles).
NL EAST
Braves 92-70
Phillies 90-72
Mets 88-74
Nationals 74-88
Marlins 63-99
It should be a tight three-team race in the NL East, with the Braves Phillies and the Mets all in the hunt. It may depend on injuries or which team can put together a nice winning streak at some point in the season.,
Despite a rather slow off-season in the player market – there is plenty of talent on the Braves – even with Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Spencer Strider likely to miss some time early. 3B Austin Riley (19 HR/56RBI in 110 games) and 1B Matt Olson (.247-29-98) provide solid power at the comers (and both are capable of more). DH Marcell Ozuna (.302-39-104) will bring runs home; 2B Ozzie Albies is due for a bounce-back; and newcomer LF Jurickson Profar (.280-24-85) should also boost the offense. They will miss Max Fried in the rotation, but 2024 Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.35) and Reynaldo Lopez are (8-5, 1.99 are capable of holding down the fort until Strider returns. Raisel Iglesias (38 saves, 1.95 ERA) is a premier closer, but the bullpen does thin a bit after that. A lot depends on how soon Acuna and Strider return (and how they perform), but the Brave appear well-positioned to lead the East.
The Phillies’ lineup is stacked with the likes of Kyle Schwarber (.248-38-104); potential MVP candidates at 1B (Bryce Harper – .285-30-87) and SS (Trea Turner – .295-21-62, with 19 steals); 2B Bryson Stott; and 3B Alex Bohm (.280-15-97). Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57) is an ace atop a reliable rotation: (Aaron Nolo (14-8, 3.57); Christopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.32); Ranger Suarez (12-8, 3.46). Suarez does have some back issues, but they do not appear to be serious. (He could miss a start or two early.) It remains to be seen what they will get out of newcomer Jesus Luzardo, coming off a tough 2024. The bullen could use a little help after the departure of Carlos Estevez and Jeff Hoffman, we’ll wait to see how well Jordan Romano bounces back from elbow surgery. He’s looked good in Spring Training, just four hits (eight K’s) 6 2/3 innings of relief as I key this) and he did save 36 games in a season as recently as 2023. The Phillies could sneak past the Braves, but I like the Atlanta pitching staff a little better.
The Mets added the big bat of Juan Soto (.288-41-109) – an acquisition made that much sweeter, since he is coming over from the Yankees. Soto makes the lineup even deeper and his presence should make SS Francisco Lindor (.273-33-91, 29 steals), 1B Pete Alonso (.240-34-88) and 3B Mark Vientos (.261-27-71) even better. Vientos, just 25-years-old, has plenty of upside and is a player to watch. The Mets are hoping 32-year year-old Kodai Senga, their default “ace,” will come back from a 2024 season lost to injuries. They have also been some health hiccups for Sean Manaea and newcomer Frank Montas this spring, both of whom it appears will start the season on the IL. Keep an eye on David Peterson (10-3, 2.90 in in 21 starts a year ago), Griffin Canning (6-13, 5.19) and Paul Blackburn (5-4, 4.66) to see now well they fill the rotation gap. The Roundtable is especially interested in newcomer Clay Holmes (closer for the Yankees a year ago), who is expected to start the Opener. In seven MLB seasons, Holmes has made 341 appearances and just four starts – but did record 74 saves over the past three seasons). Should be an interesting transition. On the brighter side, starter Tyler McGill has looked solid this spring and Edwin Diaz (who had 20 saves in 2024, even in an off year for him) can be an elite closer. The rest of the pen can generate swings and misses – and walks. Questions about the health of the rotation lead me to put the Mets behind the Braves and Phillies.
The Nationals appear to be moving in the right direction, but not into contention (yet) in the tough NL East. SS CJ Abrams (.246-20-65, 31 steals) looks poised to develop into an offensive force at the leadoff spot, prospects RF prospect LF Dylan Crews may be ready to breakout and the Nationals are hoping newcomers 1B Nathaniel Lowe (.265-16-69) and DH Josh Bell (.249-19-71) can add to a lineup that delivered the NL’s second-fewest runs and fewest homers a year ago. MacKenzie Gore (10-12. 3.90) will lead the rotation and has All Star potential, but the remainder needs to step up. Righty Trevor Williams surprised with a 6-1, 2.03 record in 13 starts a year ago. We’ll see if the 32-year-old, in his tenth MLB season) can build on that. We could see tall righty Travis Sykora called up at some point. The bullpen got a boost when Kyle Finnegan (38 saves) re-signed, but could use some help
The Marlins were 62-100 in 2024 and it looks like their young prospects are going to get a lot of playing time. Watch 1B Jonah Bride (.276 with 11 home runs in 71 games a year ago); SS Xavier Edwards (.328 in 70 games); and 3B Connor Norby (.263-9-20 in 45 games for the Orioles and Marlins). Also, keep an eye LF Jesus Sanchez, who will start the season on the IL, but has a good upside if he can master the strike zone. It will be interesting to see what 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara has as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. As I write this Alcantara has yet to give up a run in 12 1/3 spring innings. The closer role looks to go to either Jesus Tinoco or Calvin Faucher. The Marlins appear to be building for the future, not for 2025.
NL CENTRAL
Cubs 92-70
Brewers 81-81
Cardinals 79-83
Pirates 77-85
Reds 75-87
The Cubs have an interesting offense, with a host of professional hitters that may not knock your socks off individually, but who show offensive potential up and down the lineup. The Cubbies could have five 20+ home run hitters – most of whom also offer a little quickness on the basepaths: newcomer Kyle Tucker (.283-23-49, 11 steals); SS Dansby Swanson (.242-16-66, with 19 steals and three 20+ HR seasons in his last four); DH Seiya Suzuki (.283-21-73, with 16 steals); LF Ian Happ (.243-25-86, with 13 steals) and high-potential CF Pete Crow-Armstrong in CF. They also went out in the off-season and (you’ve head of Build-A-Bear) literally built a bullpen – adding Ryan Pressley (30+ saves in three of the past four seasons), Ryan Brasier and Caleb Thielbar. The rotation also looks to be a plus with Shota Imanaga (15-3, 2.91), Justin Steele (5-5, 3.07), Jameson Taillon (12-8, 3.27) and newcomers Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.72) and Colin Rea (12-6, 4.29). Couple all this with the Cubs’ solid defense and you have a well- balanced team that should be able to overtake the Brewers in the NL Central).
The Brewers have led the NL Central in three of the last four years and figure to give the Cubs a run for their money. The Brew Crew will do it with a focus on starting pitching and defense. (In the NL, only the Braves gave up fewer runs then the Brewers last season.) The rotation is led by Freddy Peralta (11-9, 3.68) and has some quality arms in Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.77), Aaron Civale (8-9, 4.36). They will miss a couple of pieces at early the season: particularly starters Tobias Myers (spring injury) and Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff appears to be progressing well this spring and was 13-4 3.05. in 2023.The bullpen, led by Trevor McGill, 21 saves a year ago, doesn’t boast a lot of well-known names, but proved its capabilities last season (with a 3.11 ERA). On offense, 2B Jackson Chourio was a 20-20 player last season (.275-21-79, with 22 steals), Christian Yelich remains an offensive force, William Contreras (,281-23-92) provides power from the catcher’s spot, 1B Rhys Hoskins had 26 long balls last season (but could improve on his .214 average) and CF Garrett Mitchels, a switch hitter, showed some pop (.255-8-21, with 11 steals in 69 games) before suffering a broken hand. The Brewers have a solid club, but heath concerns surrounding the rotation (Gee, how many teams are looking at that issue?) may be just enough to give the Cubs the edge.
The Cardinals seem to be in a process of retooling or resetting and it will probably show in the standings. An area of strength may be in the bullpen, led by shutdown closer Ryan Helsley (49 saves, 2.04 ERA) and effective relievers Ryan Fernandez, John King and Matthew Liberator. The rotation will be led by Sonny Gray (13-9, 3.84) and Erick Fedde (9-9, 3.30). Andre Pallante (8-8, 3.78) has a solid upside potential. Mike Mikolas and Steve Matz need to bounce back if the Cardinals are going to be in the chase. The offense will be led by 3B Nolan Arenado (272-16-71, but who has shown more power in the past) and 1B Willson Contreras (.262-15-36 in 84 games), who should be even better now that he has shed the catcher’s gear. Keep an eye on SS Masyn Winn, who has 20/20 potential. The Cardinals scored the fourth-fewest run in the NL last season – and they no longer have Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. They may struggle to each .500.
The reason to watch the Pirates starts with 2024 All Star and phenom Paul Skenes (11-3, 1.96), who could come away with the 2025 NL Cy Young Award. There’s also reason to be excited about young RHP Jared Jones (6-8, 4.14), another potential All Star. He had some elbow issue late in Spring Training, so keep an eye on that. It will be interesting to see how he develops. Mitch Keller (11-12, 4.25) brings a veteran presence to the rotation. The Pirates also have a couple of additional young starters who may be ready to make a splash: Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler. The bullpen, well suffice to say, the Pirates’ bullpen ERA (at 4.49) was the fourth-worst in MLB last season. Any improvement needs to start with closer David Bednar – an All Star in 2022 and 2023 – who suffered through an off season in 2024. He will set the tone for the pen. On offense CF Oneill Cruz is coming off a .259-21-76, 22-steal season; LF Bryan Reynolds can be counted on for 25 long balls; and DH Andrew McCutchen (.232-20-50), at 38-years-old, still can provide a steady veteran bat. I’m anxious to see a full season of Joey Bart at catcher (.265-13-45 in 80 games). Ultimately, with the Pirates, there does not seem to be enough “there” to move up in the standings, but they are definitely moving in the right direction. If the bullpen rights itself, they could move up a notch.
The Reds can boast one of the most exciting players in MLB – SS Elly De La Cruz (.259-25-76, with 67 steals) and an ace in waiting Hunter Greene (9-5, 2.75). Young RHP Rhett Lowder is on the rise (but will open the season on the IL); Nick Lodolo looks solid (when healthy) and Brady Singer, Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers could all contribute to the rotation. The bullpen will be led by closer Alexis Diaz (28 saves) and Emilio Pagan, Tony Santillan, Sam Moll and Brent Suter can capably fil bullpen roles. On offense, after De La Cruz, there are health concerns: LF Spencer Steer (.225-20-92, with 25 steals – shoulder), DH Christian Encarnacion-Strand (coming off a fractured wrist); 2B Matt McLain (torn Labrum); CF TJ Friedl (wrist, thumb, hamstring); and C Tyler Stephenson (oblique strain). It appears Stephenson may not be ready for the Opener. If McLain (.290-16-50, with 14 steals in 2023, but out last season), Encarnacion-Strand (just 29 games last season, but .270-13-37 in 63 2023 games) and Friedl (.226-13-55 in 85 games a year ago, but .279-18-66, with 27 steals in 203) are (and stay) healthy, the Red could challenge for third place.
NL WEST
Dodgers 106-56
Diamondbacks 91-71
Padres 88-64
Giants 79-83
Rockies 60-102
The Dodgers look like a lock to win the NL West. The offense starts with three former MVPs: DH Shohei Ohtani (.310, with 50 homers and 59 steals in 2024), SS Mookie Betts (.289-19-75, with 16 steals) and 1B Freddie Freeman (.282-22-89) But it doesn’t stop there. RF Teoscar Hernandez had 33 homers a year ago, 2B Gavin Lux hit .304-7-26 in the second half), and Will Smith showed pop at C (.248-20-75). The Dodgers will score plenty of runs. The rotation will be headed by newcomer and two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell (5-3, 3.12, in 20 starts for Giants). But there is plenty of talent: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00), newcomer Roki Sasaki, Tyler Glasnow (9-6, 3.49) and Ohtani should join in May or June. An already strong bullpen Michael Kopech (15 saves, 3.46); Blake Treinen and Evan Phillips (18 saves), was made even stronger with the addition of Tanner Scott (22 saves, 1.75 ERA for the Padres and Marlins) and Kirby Yates (33 saves 1.77 /ERA for the Rangers.) Note: Kopech is starting the season on the IL (shoulder). 100+ wins seem a cinch for this squad.
The Padres and Diamondback should fight it out for the number-two spot. I give the Diamondbacks a slight edge due to their rotation: Newcomer and Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes (15-9, 2.92 with the Orioles last season), Zac Gallen (14-6, 3.65), Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt. We’ll watch to see if Jordan Montgomery or Eduardo Rodriguez steps up. The offense, which topped MLB in runs scored a year ago, will be led by MVP candidate 2B Ketel Marte (.292-36-95), Corbin Carroll (47 homers and 89 steals over the past two seasons), 3B Eugenio Suarez (.256-30-101) and newcomer Josh Naylor (.320-31-108 for Cleveland). Key bullpen arms include closer Justin Martinez (2.48 with eight saves), A.J. Puk and Kevin Ginkel. Thanks to the Dodgers, it looks like a Wild Card sport for the Diamondbacks.
The Padres had a less than inspiring off-season (particularly in relation to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks). They lost some key players like He-Seoing Kim, Tanner Scott and Jurickson Profar and didn’t make any notable additions. With Joe Musgrove out, the rotation should be led by Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31), Michael King (13-9, 2.95) and Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47). Only, oops, late in Spring Training, Darvish went down with elbow inflammation. The Padres have to hope for a quick return. Even if Darvish comes back early on, I don’t think the rotation goes as deep as LA and Arizona. Robert Suarez (36 saves a year ago) leads the bullpen and Jason Adams (1.95 ERA in 74 games) and Jeremiah Estrada (2.95 in 62 games) have the stuff to fill in the late innings. On offense three-time batting champion 1B Luis Arreaz will be a table setter, while the likes of 3B Manny Machado (.275-29-105) and RF Fernando Tatis, Jr. (.276-21-49) provide power. Keep an eye on CF Jackson Merrill – .292-24-90, with 16 steals and an All Star in his 2024 rookie season.
The Giants should be right around .500. They lost Blake Snell (fee agency), but still have Logan Webb (13-10, 3.47), Robbie Ray (3-2, 4.70, after returning from Tommy John surgery) and Jordan Hicks (4-7, 4.10, but with notable upside). It remains to be seen what 42-year-old Justin Verlander has left in the tank and how 23-year-old southpaw Kyle Harrison (7-7, 4.56) develops. Ryan Walker has taken over and is solid at closer (10-4, 1.91, 10 saves). Tyler Rogers (2.82 in 77 appearances) and Erik Miller (3.88 in 73 appearances) should set him up. The offense should be led by newcomer SS Willy Adames (26 homers/88 RBI), OF Heliot Ramos (.269-22-72) and 3B Matt Chapman (a veteran power bat and five-time Gold Glover). Keep an eye on CF 26-year-old Jung Hoo Lee – a .340 hitter in seven seasons in Korea – who is coming off shoulder surgery, and had a strong spring. Hard to see San Francisco rising above fourth place. 2B Tyler Fitzgerald (.280-15-34, with 17 steals in in 96 games) could surprise – especially if he improves his strike zone discipline (22 walks, 108 strikeouts in 2024).
The Rockies lost 101 game a year ago and I don’t see a lot of upward potential. There are few players to watch though. CF Brenton Doyle provides Gold Glove defense, power and speed (.260-23-72, with 30 steals a year ago). 3B Ryan McMahon, 1B Michael Toglia and SS Ezequiel Tovar all hit at least 20 long balls in 2004. The rotation will be led by Kyle Freeland (5-8, 5.24); Ryan Feltner (3-10, 4.49); Austin Gomber (5-12, 4.75). German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela are both coming back from injury. As far as the state of the bullpen, Tyler Kinley led the team in saves last year with 12 (with a 6.79 ERA.) He was better in the second half (2-0, 3.75 with seven saves). In the pen, keep an eye on Seth Halvorsen (1.46 in 12 appearances with the Rox last season) and Luis Peralta (0.73 in 15 appearances – both could make some noise this season,
Ultimately, in 2024, the Rockies allowed the most runs in MLB and, despite Coors Field, finished 11th in the National League in scoring. (They were outscored by 247 runs.) They have a way to go to be competitive in the NL West.
Some of my sources for this post.
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