In recent posts (Oct. 6/7), BBRT has shared its opinion on the AL & NL Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards. In this post, we’ll take a look at two more major regular season recognitions – Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. We’ll start with the easiest to guage, American League Rookie of the Year.
Mike Trout – likely unanimous AL ROY.
AL Rookie of the Year – Mike Trout (Angels)
If you don’t know the AL ROY is going to be the Angels’ Mike Trout, go back to Monday Night Football, you’re reading the wrong blog.
The (now) 21-year-old Trout, called up in late April, finished the season with a .326 average, 30 HRs, 83 RBI (from the lead-off spot) – while also leading the AL in runs scored (129) and stolen bases (49) and likely earning Gold Glove consideration. In the process, he became the youngest player to reach the “30-30 Club” (HRs and SBs), one of only 19 players to reach 30-40, and came within one stolen base of joining Eric Davis (1987) and Barry Bonds (1990) in the 30 HR-50 SB fraternity. In fact, as BBRT completes this post, Trout is not only being talked about as a shoe-in Rookie of the Year, but as a leading AL Most Valuable Player candidate (see BBRT post of Oct. 7).
Honorable Mention would go out to the Rangers’ right-hander Yu Darvish, who posted a 16-9 record, with a 3.90 ERA, striking out 222 batters in 191 1/3 innings pitched. The contest, however, is not even close.
NL Rookie of the Year – Wade Miley (Diamondbacks)
Wade Miley – stats on next year’s card will show why BBRT likes him as NL ROY.
BBRT sees a three-way battle here – one that could have been avoided except for a kink in the ROY eligibility rules (more on that later). BBRT takes Arizona hurler Wade Miley over Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Norichika Aoki of the Brewers.
First, why Miley? For the year, he posted a 16-11 record (leading the Diamondbacks in wins), with the league’s tenth-best ERA among qualifiers (3.33). He took on a strong workload for a rookie (194 2/3) innings pitched – showing poise, control and power (only 37 walks against 144 strikeouts).
Second, why not Harper or Aoki (especially Harper, who was touted all year as the league’s top and most exciting rookie)? For BBRT these two players, who took widely different paths to the NL (Harper a teenage sensation and Aoki a 30-year-old Japanese import), stole votes from each other. Here’s the proverbial “tale of the tape.”
Games Played: Aoki leads 151 to 139.
Hits: Aoki tops Harper 150 to 144.
Batting Average: Aoki bests Harper – .288 to .270.
Runs Scored: Harper tops Aoki – 98 to 81.
Home Runs: Harper well ahead of Aoki 22 to 10.
Doubles: Aoki makes up for some of Harper’s HR-power, leading in two-baggers 37-26.
Triples: Harper is more explosive, with 9 triples to Aoki’s 4.
RBI: Despite the “overpowering” HR lead, the RBI race was closer than you would expect, with Harper leading 59 to 50.
Stolen Bases: Like Harper in HRs, Aoki has a big lead here, 30 to 18. Also, Oaki was safe 89.5% of the time to 75.0% for Harper.
Walks: Harper leads Aoki 56 to 43.
Strikeouts: BBRT hates these wasted at-bats. Aoki fanned only 55 times to Harper’s 120.
Excitement quotient: Have to give the edge to Harper, who went all-out, all-the-time.
Harper had a fantastic season for a teenager, but just not enough to offset Wiley’s presence in the Diamondbacks’ rotation – and really not that far ahead of Aoki’s 2012 performance.
Honorable Mention: BBRT regrets that Cardinal Lance Lynn did not qualify for ROY consideration (there was some debate early in the season). He was well under the 50 innings pitched limit (getting in 18 games with 34 2/3 innings in 2011), but his early June 2011 call-up gave him more than the allowable 45 days of ML service (during the 25-man roster period – yes, it’s a technical rule). Without that hitch, and time on the bench, Lynn would get BBRT’s vote hands down for his 18-7, 3.78, 176 innings pitched, 64-walk, 180-strikeout effort.
Notably, over in the AL, Mike Trout faced a pre-season ROY-eligibility dilemma himself. According to reports last December, Trout was initially credited with 55 days on the Angels’ active roster (during the 25-player time period) in 2011. However, Trout was on the 25-man roster for just 38 days, with the remaining additional 17 days being credited after a short-term demotion to the minors. MLB, in that case, ruled that while Trout retains 55 days of service time for accounting purposes, only the time he spent on the active roster will count against his rookie status. Wow, I’m getting a headache, Mr. Commissioner.
AL Manager of the Year – Bob Melvin (A’s)
The A’s Bob Melvin – BBRT choice for AL Manager of the Year.
BBRT’s choice, Bob Melvin, brought a no-name, no-payroll club (picked for last place by many analysts) to the West Division Championship with a 94-68 record (second-best in the AL). Along the way, his A’s overcame a 13-game deficit as of June 30; were nine games out at the All-Star Break, four back with eight to go; and two behind with three to go. They had to sweep the first-place and favored Rangers in the last series of the year and needed to overcome a 5-1 deficit in game 162 to capture the Division title. They did it all – and with the lowest payroll in the league.
They also did it with no 100-RBI men; no .300 hitters; only one player with 30 or more homers; no-pitcher with more than 13 victories; only one pitcher with 30+ starts; and no pitcher with 200 innings pitched. They had 54 wins from rookie pitchers, and started a rookie hurler in each of the last 14 games of the season.
Runner-up? That would be Buck Showalter of the equally “disrespected-in-the-preseason” Orioles. Showalter kept his Orioles in the race with the vaunted Yankees until the final weekend, finishing two games out of the Division title – winning a Wild Card spot with a 93-69 record. Had Melvin’s A’s not captured the West, BBRT would have split its vote between the A’s and Orioles’ skippers.
NL Manager of the Year – Davey Johnson (Nationals)
Davey Johnson – BBRT choice for NL Manager of the Year.
This was a close one for BBRT, with the Nationals’ Davey Johnson barely edging out Bruce Bochy of the Giants and Dusty Baker of the Reds not far behind. All three managers brought 2011 non-playoff teams to Division Championships. Johnson ends up with a slight edge for bringing his Nationals’ squad in at 98-64, MLB’s best record in 2012.
Here’s what BBRT saw over the season. We’ll start with Johnson. His Nationals improved from 2011’s third-place finish (80-81, 21 ½ games out) to 98-64 and an AL East Crown. In the process, Johnson had to deal with injuries to key players like Michael Morse, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman. He also had to keep enthusiastic (can you be overly enthusiastic?) 19-year-old rookie Bryce Harper on as even a keel as possible and handle the Stephen Strasburg shut-down controversy. Finally, he boosted the confidence and performance of middle-infielders Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa, who came into the season with a combined 515 total games of MLB experience. Those challenges, plus his deft handling of the pitching staff and MLB’s best record earn Johnson BBRT’s vote.
Close behind is the Giants’ Bruce Bochy. The Giants didn’t have as far to come as the Nationals (which played a role in BBRT’s preference for Johnson), going from 2011’s second-place finish (86-76, eight games out) to 94-68. Bochy, however, faced plenty of challenge along the way. He lost his leading offensive player to a PED-related suspension, suffered through an off-year by staff ace Tim Lincecum (whose ERA went from 2011’s 2.74 to 5.18), dealt with injuries to key players like Pablo Sandoval, and faced the threat of the high-spending Dodgers. Outside of the spectacular year from Buster Posey (.336, 24 HR, 103 RBI), the Giants’ HR and RBI leader would have been Sandoval, with only 12 HRs and 63 RBI. Like the Nats, the Giants could count on a strong starting staff (Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Madison Baumgardner and a resurgent Barry Zito), which helped compensate for Lincecum’s 10-15 record. A key to the Giant’s strong season, however, was Bochy’s handling of the bullpen, consistently getting the “hot hand” in at the “right time.” As a result, the bulk of the saves went to: Santiago Casilla (25), Sergio Romo (14) and Javier Lopez (7).
BBRT gives third place in the Manager of the Year race to Dusty Baker of the Reds. Baker brought the Reds from 2011’s third-place finish (79-83, 17 games back) to 97-65. Over the course of the season, he had to deal with injuries to key players like Joey Votto (the center of the Reds’ offense) and Scott Rolen. Baker, known as a player’s manager and motivator, responded by getting the best out of players like Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick. Not blessed with a particularly strong bench, Baker proved a master (though an oft-criticized one) at juggling his line-up to keep the Reds on track. Baker also has to be credited for the Mid-May decision to move hard-throwing Aroldis Chapman into the closer role. Chapman responded with 38 saves, a 1.51 ERA and 122 K’s in 71 2/3 innings pitched.
Like Johnson and Bochy, Baker did benefit from a solid and stable (perhaps the most stable) starting rotation. Baker’s five-man rotation (Johnny Cueto, Matt Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake) accounted for 161 of the Reds’ 162 starts. For you trivia buffs, the starter in that one “outlier” – the second game of an August 18 day/night doubleheader – was rookie Todd Redmond (his only ML appearance to date).
Overall, a great – maybe even award-worthy – managerial season for Baker. However, both Johnson and Bochy had to deal with more “distractions” in bringing their squads home in first.
BBRT invites your comments on 2012 regular-season awards.
